Initial Claims Forecast

Last week's initial claims number 0f 474,000 suprised both me and the consensus. This week, I predict 464,000, once again in line with the consensus estimate of 465,000.

Initial Jobless Claims Forecast

My model forecasts initial claims to decline to 451,000 this week, in line with consensus of 455,000.

I didn't post last week, which is a shame, given the results. For the record, my model predicted 462,000, well below consenus of 480,000 and in line with the actual result of 457,000.